Joint project in cooperation with Saarland University

PIs: Dr. Berend Barkela, Prof. Dr. Michaela Maier, Prof. Dr. Stephan Winter, Prof. Dr. Georg Wenzelburger

Staff: Aidar Zinnatullin, Sebastian Hemesath, Lukas Fock, Signe Filler

This joint project investigates the strategic communication of scientific uncertainties in societal debates and their influence on political decision-making using the example of scientific simulation models.

Scientific modeling and simulations help to better understand complex societal challenges. During the Covid-19 pandemic, for example, simulations were used to estimate the spread of the virus and evaluate the effectiveness of containment measures. However, scientific models are only as good as the assumptions and data on which they are based – therefore, uncertainties must always be taken into account when interpreting the results. In political debates, such uncertainties could be interpreted differently by different stakeholders from science, politics, business, civil society and the media: Those who are stronger supporters of strict containment measures, will probably rate the uncertainties of a prediction in favor of such measures lower than vice versa.

So far, there has been little research on such politicized communication about scientific uncertainties in science communication. Therefore, this project will explore public debates about the uncertainty of simulation models using the example of the Covid-19 pandemic, energy security and biodiversity. Content analyses will be used to investigate whether and how different stakeholders strategically interpret scientific uncertainties. The reasons for such different interpretations will be analyzed in experimental studies. Furthermore, policy process analyses will examine the consequences of such debates for political decision-making. Finally, workshops will be developed to raise awareness for misrepresentations of uncertainties among different stakeholders and to improve their skills to communicate about scientific uncertainties.

Conference Presentations

2025

• Barkela, B., Zinnatullin, A., Hemesath, S., Sydorova, M., Makhortykh, M., Maier, M., & Wenzelburger, G. (2025, June). Navigating uncertainty: Political actors’ strategic communication of scientific evidence [Conference presentation]. 75th Annual Conference of the International Communication Association (ICA), Denver, CO.
• Fock, L., Barkela, B., & Winter, S. (2025, June). Spin to win? Discourse strategies of stakeholders in politicized debates about biodiversity [Conference presentation]. 4th Science Communication Preconference at the 75th Annual Conference of the International Communication Association (ICA), Denver, CO, United States.
• Zinnatullin, A., Barkela, B., & Maier, M. (2025, April). News under pressure? Politicization of German mainstream media in times of crisis and uncertainty [Conference presentation]. 7th Annual COMPTEXT Conference, University of Vienna.
• Fock, L., Barkela, B., & Winter, S. (2025, Februar). (Un)sicher und Dominant? Strategien politisierter Wissenschaftskommunikation im Kontext der Schweizer Biodiversitätsinitiative. [(Un)certain and Dominant? Strategies of Politicized Science Communication in the Context of the Biodiversity Initiative in Switzerland.][Conference presentation] DGPuK expert group conference on media language and media discourse, Darmstadt, Germany.

2024

• Barkela, B., Zinnatullin, A., Fock, L., & Maier, M. (2024, October 1).  Strategische Wissenschaftskommunikation. [Strategic Science Communication] [Poster presentation]. Closing event: Listen to the (real) Experts. The role of researchers in social media during crises, Berlin, Germany.
• Fock, L., Barkela, B., & Winter, S. (2024, October 1). Fehlendes Verständnis oder bewusste Verzerrung? Strategien politisierter Wissenschaftskommunikation im Kontext der Schweizer Biodiversitätsinitiative. [Lack of understanding or deliberate distortion? [Strategies of Politicized Science Communication in the Context of the Biodiversity Initiative in Switzerland.] [Poster presentation]. Closing event: Listen to the (real) Experts. The role of researchers in social media during crises, Berlin, Germany.
• Zinnatullin, A., Barkela, B., & Maier, M. (2024, September 13). Communication in crisis and uncertainty: when and to what extent do mainstream media become politicized on the example of Coronavirus disease 2019? [Poster presentation], Workshop on Computational Linguistics for the Political and Social Sciences co-located with the KONVENS conference, Vienna.
• Filler, S., Barkela, B., Maier, M., Winter, S., & von Sikorski, C. (2024, September). Uncertain futures: Communicating scientific modelling in the public space [Paper presentation]. 10th ECREA European Communication Conference, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
• Zinnatullin, A., Barkela, B., Fock, L., & Maier, M. (2024, August). From skepticism to motivated reasoning: How do corona protesters strategically use scientific uncertainty? The case of COVID-19 protests in Germany [Conference presentation]. ECPR General Conference, Dublin.
• Zinnatullin, A., Barkela, B., Fock, L., Hemesath, S., & Maier, M. (2024, August 14). Corona Protesters in Germany and Framing Scientific Evidence [Conference presentation], ECPR General Conference, Dublin.