Project: Strategic communication of the uncertainty of simulation models (BMBF)

Joint project in cooperation with Saarland University

PIs: Dr. Berend Barkela, Prof. Dr. Michaela Maier, Prof. Dr. Stephan Winter, Prof. Dr. Georg Wenzelburger

Staff: Aidar Zinnatullin, Sebastian Hemesath, Lukas Fock, Signe Filler

This joint project investigates the strategic communication of scientific uncertainties in societal debates and their influence on political decision-making using the example of scientific simulation models.

Scientific modeling and simulations help to better understand complex societal challenges. During the Covid-19 pandemic, for example, simulations were used to estimate the spread of the virus and evaluate the effectiveness of containment measures. However, scientific models are only as good as the assumptions and data on which they are based – therefore, uncertainties must always be taken into account when interpreting the results. In political debates, such uncertainties could be interpreted differently by different stakeholders from science, politics, business, civil society and the media: Those who are stronger supporters of strict containment measures, will probably rate the uncertainties of a prediction in favor of such measures lower than vice versa.

So far, there has been little research on such politicized communication about scientific uncertainties in science communication. Therefore, this project will explore public debates about the uncertainty of simulation models using the example of the Covid-19 pandemic, energy security and biodiversity. Content analyses will be used to investigate whether and how different stakeholders strategically interpret scientific uncertainties. The reasons for such different interpretations will be analyzed in experimental studies. Furthermore, policy process analyses will examine the consequences of such debates for political decision-making. Finally, workshops will be developed to raise awareness for misrepresentations of uncertainties among different stakeholders and to improve their skills to communicate about scientific uncertainties.

Motivations behind the utilization of Anglicisms in business and public communication (Vestische Research Foundation, 2023-2024)

Whether in advertising ("Impossible is nothing") or concerning the Covid-19-Pandemic ("Lockdown", "Social Distancing, ...) – english words, borrowed by the german language (anglicisms) can be found everywhere and are strongly discussed. In the context of this research project, the motives of using anglicisms in german companies and in the german public discourse (e.g. during the Covid 19 pandemic) will be explored. While studies that examine the impact of anglicisms as well as their use by private individuals exist already, it has not yet been clarified with which intentions communicators of the public use anglicisms. In order to shed light on this, a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches will be used to survey decision-makers from companies, as well as individuals who engage in science communication. On this basis, a systematization that presents the motives for using anglicisms can be developed.

DFG Network „Public Online Engagement with Science Information [POESI]“ (Applicants: Monika Taddicken & Nicole C. Krämer, 2022-2024)

In particular since the “Fridays for Future” movement and the Covid-19 crisis, scientific issues have been discussed in online environments both by experts and laypeople. What was once reserved for meetings of scientists has now been brought to all individuals through internet platforms and applications. Although research covering online and social media has flourished over the past 15 years, when it comes to scientific issues, a huge research gap needs to be acknowledged. Despite the relevance of science and science communication in modern societies, the potential benefits and threats of social media have both been mostly analysed in the context of politics and political communication. Only little is known about how laypeople engage in the online discourse on scientific issues. There is an urgent need for scientists to collaborate more systematically in understanding how citizens engage with science and how the way in which such scientific information is presented affects this engagement. This network aims to contribute to this research gap by bringing together different scholars working on the overarching research question: How does the changing media environment affect public engagement with science information? To systematize the research, we will consider the different ways in which online engagement occurs and differentiate between consuming, participating and generating behaviours. Moreover, we distinguish phases in the process of citizens’ engagement with science: a preexposure period, exposure itself, and postexposure time. In addition, we take the recursiveness of processes into account.

The central aim of the planned network is to bring together senior and junior experts on online public engagement with science to contribute jointly to the research gap. The group will discuss and advance theoretical assumptions and models, plan bilateral empirical research and reflect on the adequacy of different methods. By inviting 15 experts from six different European countries, we seek to consolidate the online aspects of ‘science of science communication’ with a special focus on European research. Researchers from both communication science and psychology will cooperate to consider different perspectives and approaches. We will account for four different theoretical desiderata: 1) Role of new technologies and their affordances 2) Changes in the knowledge system 3) Bounded rationality and the need for trust 4) Recursiveness of processes. In sum, the network aims to combine theoretical, methodological and empirical competence to foster fundamental research on non-expert online communication about science, by developing a comprehensive theoretical framework and evaluating the appropriateness of traditional and digital research methods.

„Media, Democracy and Citizens (MeDeCi): Fragmented media environments and their influence on political information processing and decisions“ (2020-2022, University of Koblenz-Landau, with Benjamin E. Hilbig, Jürgen Maier, Michaela Maier, Gerhard Reese, Selma Rudert, Melanie Steffens and Christian von Sikorski)

The aim of the project is to shed light on current developments (e.g. the rise of populist movements, increasing social diversity, an increase in scandalization, negativity, incivility and populism in political communication, but also collective actions by civil society) and controversial phenomena (e.g. fake news, the "lying press", the refugee debate, the threat of terrorism) using an innovative and interdisciplinary approach from communication science, psychology and political science. The focus is on processes at the micro level, i.e. the individual information behavior of citizens and effects on their knowledge, their emotional state, their attitudes as well as their behavior or behavioral intentions, but taking into account the social and media framework conditions as well as the democratic consequences. The cooperation between communication and political science as well as psychology enables an innovative contribution to basic research in political communication through a combination of social and media-related theories and those relating to individual and social perception and information processing. This can provide explanations for the emergence, perception and consequences of social conflicts and enable the derivation of empirically based recommendations for action to strengthen media literacy. The planned research projects include a variety of methodological approaches and innovative combinations of methods: The focus is on experimental designs and quantitative methods involving observational data (e.g. web tracking, eye tracking, physiological measurements) and behavioral economic paradigms.

The Effects of Trait-Based Personalization in Social Media (Marketing Science Institute, with Ewa Maslowska, University of Amsterdam, 2018-2019)

The presence of digital traces, especially in social media, and the development of big data analyses have enabled new forms of message personalization. One recent example is the use of Facebook data to predict personality traits and to provide content tailored to psychographic profiles, which has been employed in Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. However, empirical findings on the effectiveness of trait-based personalization on social media are rare. Therefore, the proposed project aims to investigate the conditions under which trait-based personalized messages in social media are more persuasive than non-personalized messages, which personality traits and user characteristics are most suitable for this purpose, and how they can be predicted by means of available social media data.

The social side of news: Attitude formation and expression in social networking sites under conditions of impression motivation (DFG project / 2015-2018, conducted at the University of Duisburg-Essen and the University of Amsterdam)

Social media such as Facebook are increasingly used as sources of information and for discussions on political and societal topics. While these sites were originally seen as a tool for social contacts and private communication, recent studies recognized their role as primary platforms in which recipients are exposed to news and current debates, especially the younger parts of the population. The context of social media is characterized by a convergence of mass and interpersonal communication (e.g., with a juxtaposition of an article published by a news media organization and comments written by laypersons) as well as by a high level of visibility with regard to the actions of the individual user (e.g., when status updates and likes are visible for the entire contact list). Against this background, the proposed project investigates the mechanisms of attitude formation and expression in social networking sites (SNS) in comparison to previous forms of websites. Based on the heuristic-systematic model of information processing (Chaiken, Giner-Sorolla, & Chen, 1996) and the high importance of impression management in the context of SNS, it can be assumed that the evaluation of incoming information is already influenced more strongly by considerations of majority opinion and self-presentation, since SNS readers more frequently anticipate (public) discussions with others than readers of traditional news sources. Four laboratory experiments address the conditions under which SNS settings elicit this form of impression-motivated information processing and the question of how subsequent opinion expressions (e.g., via status update) and communication in the network consolidate the given attitude. As independent variables, the media context (SNS vs. “Web 1.0”) and the type of presented information are manipulated. The first two studies investigate the process of attitude formation based on news articles (Study 1) and reader comments (Study 2). Study 3A and Study 3B deal with the consequences of public attitude expression for the private attitude and the effects of feedback that is given by other SNS users. On a theoretical level, the project aims at specifying the heuristic-systematic model for online and social media settings and at integrating the process of attitude expression. Furthermore, results will extend prior SNS research, which mainly focused on private contacts so far, and add to our knowledge on current media phenomena with regard to the dynamics of public opinion (which may lead to a focus on popular topics and opinions instead of a thorough consideration of the quality of arguments).